570,002 matches. 10,257 fighters. $4.5 trillion Salty Bucks wagered. Over five years of 24/7 MUGEN fights, all recorded.
Have you ever wondered, in the land of MUGEN, specifically on SaltyBet, who is the best fighter? We did. We started tracking SaltyBet in January 2026. At first it was a weekend project, then the dataset got interesting — shoutout to the SaltyBoy API [1], we were able to go all the way back to December 2021. In this post, we walk through some of our findings. Let’s dive in!
| Stat | Number |
|---|---|
| Total matches recorded | 570,002 |
| Unique fighters | 10,257 |
| Date range | Dec 2021 – Feb 2026 |
| Total Salty Bucks wagered | $4,522,335,101,335 |
| Average pot per match | ~$7.9 million |
| Matches per month (avg) | ~12,500 |
In terms of the type of action happening on SaltyBet, 86.9% of matches are standard matchmaking (495,068) — not too surprising if you’ve ever spent time on the channel [2]. The remaining 13.1% are tournament format, not necessarily a format we enjoy too much but we do appreciate the exhibition style matches.
Matchmaking pots average 9 million Salty Bucks — we love us some ‘for funzies only’ money. Just to reiterate, SaltyBet uses virtual currency only. No actual money is at stake or wagered, and SaltyBet is free to play and watch (with an optional paid membership, the Salty Illuminati, for extra features). Tournament pots average $779,000, and the stakes difference is roughly 12x!
SaltyBet has five tiers:
| Tier | Matches | % of Total | Avg Pot |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 238,586 | 41.9% | 7.4M |
| S | 182,820 | 32.1% | 9.2M |
| B | 120,763 | 21.2% | 6.5M |
| X (Championship) | 15,375 | 2.7% | 10.5M |
| P | 12,458 | 2.2% | 8.2M |
A-tier makes up nearly 42% of all matches. X-tier makes up 2.7%. And yet X-tier commands the largest pots at 10.5 million per fight — scarcity drives interest. Fighters move between tiers by winning or losing 15 consecutive matches, with X-tier placement handled manually by the admins for characters deemed overpowered.
Red, or blue, is one side truly better? No, not really.
Blue has a 1.6-point edge across 570,000 matches. That’s statistical noise. Tier-by-tier, the split barely moves:
| Tier | Red Win Rate |
|---|---|
| P | 50.3% |
| X | 49.6% |
| B | 49.5% |
| A | 49.2% |
| S | 49.0% |
If your strategy is “always bet red” or “always bet blue,” you don’t have a strategy :) — and that may be why you’re here now.
The side with more Salty Bucks wagered wins 67.9% of the time. The underdog wins the other 32.1%. Unfortunately though, you only see which way the crowd bets after your bet is locked in. Another plug for the SaltyTrack extension which helps mitigate this disadvantage by giving you machine-learning-trained, AI powered predictions.
Two-thirds accuracy from collective wisdom sounds decent until you look at how that breaks down by tier:
| Tier | Underdog Win Rate |
|---|---|
| A | 34.3% |
| B | 32.2% |
| S | 30.1% |
| X | 27.7% |
| P | 24.5% |
A-tier is where the crowd gets burned. One in three favorites loses.
P-tier and X-tier are more settled. The strongest fighters have proven themselves over hundreds of matches, so the betting public has better data to work with. A-tier still has fighters on the way up and on the way down. The crowd hasn’t figured them out yet.
Among fighters with 50+ matches:
| Fighter | Win Rate | Record | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| K9999-ex | 92.7% | 51-4 | X |
| Shiva-hell | 89.5% | 204-24 | S |
| Element -a- | 89.1% | 171-21 | S |
| Primeus | 89.0% | 170-21 | S |
| Mega weapon | 88.5% | 162-21 | S |
| Flawless specter | 88.2% | 187-25 | S |
| Natural kain | 88.2% | 194-26 | S |
| Abyss EX | 87.1% | 142-21 | S |
| Bloodbane | 87.1% | 155-23 | S |
| Android 16 ub22 | 87.0% | 227-34 | S |
K9999-ex has only lost four times. Ever. 92.7% across 55 matches. The caveat: 55 matches is a small sample compared to S-tier regulars like Shiva-hell and Android 16 ub22, who’ve proven it over 200+.
Nine of the top ten are S-tier. S-tier is where the elite stabilize. X-tier fighters rotate more aggressively and face each other, which compresses win rates. S-tier fighters get to feast on weaker opponents often enough to keep those numbers inflated.
| Fighter | Total Bets | Matches | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Element -a- | 7.6B | 192 | 89.1% |
| Thanos mvc2 | 6.5B | 245 | 83.3% |
| Android 16 ub22 | 6.1B | 261 | 87.0% |
| Irene | 5.2B | 177 | 84.2% |
| Riesbyfe stridberg | 5.2B | 221 | 86.0% |
Every fighter on this list wins 80%+ of their matches. The crowd puts its money on known quantities.
The exception worth noting: Reicubas draws 5.0 billion in bets with a 41.3% win rate. The crowd loses money on Reicubas regularly and keeps coming back. Is Reicubas a meme fighter? Not sure, but some fighters are just entertainment.
| Winner | Defeated | Odds Against | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miduma | Remy | 428:1 | B |
| Mindcrasher | Rugagaga!! | 196:1 | X |
| Kawashima-san EX3 | Limbo_bros | 140:1 | A |
| Heart-armardi | Dark excellent donald | 135:1 | X |
| Cyber akuma | Mint | 118:1 | S |
Upsets in the sense of the unexpected outcome: Miduma won a fight where the crowd bet 428 times more money on the opponent.
Enter B-tier. One of the tiers with the highest upset rates. It makes sense that the single biggest upset in 570,000 matches happened there.
Two of the top five upsets happened in X-tier, which is notable because X-tier has the lowest overall upset rate (27.7%). Even in the most predictable tier, the AI can do something nobody expected.
| Fighter | Best Streak |
|---|---|
| The world of arien | 99 |
| Ryousan gata patchouli | 74 |
| Tetris EX | 65 |
| H_yujiro | 65 |
| Koumakan reisen | 57 |
99 consecutive wins! We see that SaltyBet runs roughly 400 matches per day, so in light of that, a 99-win streak isn’t just dominant, it means this fighter went undefeated for what could be weeks of continuous competition, depending on scheduling frequency.
The gap between #1 and #2 is 25 wins. That’s not a close race.
We believe in transparency and clearly stating whether we’re right or wrong. We trained a machine learning model on this dataset. Over the last 90 days (34,777 scored matches):
| Confidence | Accuracy | Matches |
|---|---|---|
| Lock | 99.8% | 998 |
| High | 86.8% | 9,695 |
| Medium | 70.1% | 15,138 |
| Low | 56.0% | 8,946 |
| Overall | 72.0% | 34,777 |
Two wrong out of 998 Lock predictions! A Lock prediction is pretty much a sure thing.
The model’s overall 72.0% accuracy beats the crowd’s 67.9%. That 4.1-point gap compounds over thousands of bets.
“Low” confidence still means 56% accuracy. Six points above random. On fights where even the model is uncertain, it’s still finding signal, and providing useful intel to the user.
| Matches Played | Fighters |
|---|---|
| 1–5 | 114 |
| 6–20 | 2,154 |
| 21–50 | 1,007 |
| 51–100 | 939 |
| 101–200 | 5,084 |
| 200+ | 959 |
5,084 fighters have between 101 and 200 matches, that’s half the roster. Only 114 have appeared 5 times or fewer. SaltyBet doesn’t rely on a small pool of headliners. It cycles through its full 10,000+ character roster consistently.
959 fighters have 200+ matches — these are the veterans, the ones with enough data to actually analyze. When SaltyTrack shows you a prediction, it’s usually drawing on 100+ historical fights for each fighter.
This is the first in a series. Coming up:
See these stats live during matches. Install the SaltyTrack Chrome extension for AI-powered predictions, win rates, and head-to-head records in the SaltyBet overlay.
SaltyBet uses virtual currency only. No real money is wagered or exchanged. SaltyTrack is not affiliated with SaltyBet.