Welcome back to the SaltyBet Meta Report! We’re trying out a twice-a-month format starting now — this one covers March 1–15, and the second half report will land at the end of the month. More frequent data, more frequent trends. Let’s get into it.
| Stat | March 1–15, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total matches | 5,086 |
| Unique fighters seen | 5,555 |
| Total Salty Bucks wagered | $32.7 billion |
| Average pot | $6.4 million |
| Red wins | 2,496 (49.1%) |
| Blue wins | 2,590 (50.9%) |
5,555 unique fighters across 5,086 matches — more unique fighters than matches. The SaltyBet roster just keeps rotating. Every time you sit down to watch, you’re almost guaranteed to see a name you haven’t seen before.
Red vs Blue is right on the historical average: 49.1% vs 50.9%. Blue continues its slight all-time edge. February was almost identical (49.5% Red, 50.5% Blue). If you’re still running the “always bet Red” strategy, the data has been telling you to stop for 578,000 matches now. Lol.
Compared to February’s full-month numbers (9,776 matches, $55.7B wagered), the first half of March is on pace to surpass it — $32.7B in 15 days projects to roughly $65B for the full month, and match volume tracks to ~10,000+.
| Tier | Matches | % of Period | Upset Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 2,257 | 44.4% | 35.1% |
| S | 1,583 | 31.1% | 28.7% |
| B | 994 | 19.5% | 31.8% |
| X | 137 | 2.7% | 22.6% |
| P | 115 | 2.3% | 28.7% |
A-tier is running the schedule again at 44.4%, up slightly from February’s 41.9%. And it’s more chaotic than usual — 35.1% upset rate, above the all-time average of ~34%. More than one in three A-tier favorites are going down this period.
X-tier is the most predictable at 22.6% upset rate, below its all-time average of ~27.7%. The veteran fighters are holding serve. Meanwhile, P-tier’s 28.7% upset rate is well above its all-time 24.5% — potato tier is feeling frisky this month.
S-tier and P-tier sharing the exact same upset rate (28.7%) is a fun coincidence. Completely different fighters, completely different skill levels, same randomness factor.
Ten fighters went undefeated in the first half of March with 5+ matches:
| Fighter | Record | Win Rate | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thanos mvc2 | 5-0 | 100.0% | S |
| Order-sol | 5-0 | 100.0% | S |
| Omega goenitz | 5-0 | 100.0% | S |
| Johnny(ac) | 5-0 | 100.0% | S |
| Chizuruxxx | 5-0 | 100.0% | S |
Plus: Nests-rugal (5-0), Mech Zangief (5-0), Darkness-of-red (5-0) in S-tier, and Makoto(*zenkai*) (5-0) and Hakolen-sbs EX3 (5-0) in A-tier.
Thanos mvc2 staying perfect isn’t surprising — this is a fighter with an all-time record of 163-28 (85.3%) and a best streak of 20. Did Thanos do anything wrong? A discussion for another time… but Makoto(*zenkai*) going 5-0 in A-tier is notable: their all-time average is 63.4%, so a perfect run in the chaos tier is punching well above weight. Chizuruxxx is another standout — 76.0% all-time with a best streak of 27, and they’re keeping pace this month.
The most active high-performer was Lyndis EX at 6-1 (85.7%) in A-tier. Interesting because their all-time win rate is only 57.1% — this is a fighter running significantly hotter than average.
| Winner | Defeated | Odds Against | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament of power goku | Piccolo sb | 17.4:1 | S |
| Milla basset | Mega weapon | 17.3:1 | S |
| R-unagi | Obelisk nyto | 16.0:1 | X |
| Suwako ai | Captainamerica EX3 | 13.4:1 | S |
| Bad rorschach | Mvc3 alice buster | 13.2:1 | A |
March’s biggest upsets didn’t reach February’s 30:1 peak (Kaio Helmo over Buroli), but two fights still came in above 17:1 — both in S-tier.
The X-tier upset is the eyebrow-raiser: R-unagi taking down Obelisk Nyto at 16:1 in the championship tier. X-tier only had a 22.6% upset rate this period, so when an upset happens there, the crowd really didn’t see it coming.
Milla Basset beating Mega Weapon at 17.3:1 is worth a double-take — Mega Weapon is an all-time top-5 win rate fighter at 88.5% with a 162-21 record. That’s the kind of result that reminds you nobody is truly safe.
| Match | Pot | Tier | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd Death Star vs Boss I-no | $140.0M | X | 2nd Death Star |
| Janne d’Arc vs Granzon | $65.8M | A | Granzon |
| Grandmaster vs C-ryu | $64.9M | X | Grandmaster |
| Bokosuka Wars vs Serena | $55.7M | A | Bokosuka Wars |
| Nightcrawler vs Zabuza | $43.8M | P | Nightcrawler |
The biggest pot of the first half — $140 million on 2nd Death Star vs Boss I-no in X-tier. That’s the largest pot we’ve seen since we started tracking. February’s record was $103.3M (Filea vs Pocchi in P-tier), and March just blew past it. X-tier drawing that kind of money makes sense — these are the most recognized fighters with the most data, so the crowd bets big.
The real story might be the $43.8M P-tier pot (Nightcrawler vs Zabuza). Over $43 million wagered on potato tier. The crowd wanted this one.
| Fighter | Best Streak (this period) |
|---|---|
| H_yujiro | 67 |
| Koumakan reisen | 58 |
| Honki-ultraman | 45 |
| Regular ass chizuru | 24 |
| Cheapest kfm!!! | 24 |
H_yujiro hit a 67-win streak in the first half of March. For context, their all-time best streak is also in this range — this fighter is a perennial streak machine. 67 consecutive wins is absurd by any measure, even if it’s not approaching the all-time record (The World of Arien, 100).
Koumakan Reisen at 58 is right behind, and Honki-ultraman at 45 is a familiar name from the February report where they hit 44. Three fighters above 40 wins in a row tells you there are some seriously dominant AIs in the current rotation.
Trending Up — fighters performing well above their all-time average this period:
| Fighter | Period Win Rate | All-Time Win Rate | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darkness-of-red (S) | 100.0% | 60.8% | +39.2% |
| Makoto(*zenkai*) (A) | 100.0% | 63.4% | +36.6% |
| Lyndis EX (A) | 85.7% | 57.1% | +28.6% |
Trending Down — fighters performing well below their all-time average:
| Fighter | Period Win Rate | All-Time Win Rate | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| M.bison mk2 (A) | 0.0% | 68.9% | -68.9% |
| Yamazaki sk (S) | 0.0% | 63.6% | -63.6% |
| Trs (A) | 0.0% | 48.4% | -48.4% |
New section for the meta report! These are fighters with 5+ matches this period who are running the furthest from their career averages.
Darkness-of-red going 5-0 when their all-time is 60.8% suggests favorable matchups this period. Makoto(*zenkai*) doing the same in A-tier is even more impressive given how chaotic A-tier is.
On the downside, M.bison mk2 going 0-5 with a 68.9% all-time win rate is a brutal cold streak. Yamazaki SK going 0-6 with a 63.6% career average is equally rough. Small samples mean these could just be matchup variance, but if you’re betting on reputation alone, these names would’ve burned you this month.
| Confidence | Accuracy | Matches |
|---|---|---|
| Lock | 100.0% | 2 |
| High | 79.3% | 1,731 |
| Medium | 62.0% | 2,264 |
| Low | 53.7% | 1,089 |
| Overall | 66.1% | 5,086 |
SaltyTrack: 66.1% vs Crowd: 68.0% — the crowd edges us by 1.9 points this period.
Honest assessment time. The model underperformed both the crowd and our own February numbers (70.4% vs 69.1%) this period. High confidence held solid at 79.3%, and Lock stayed perfect (though only 2 matches qualified). But Medium dropped to 62.0% (vs 68.5% in February) and Low fell to 53.7% (vs 56.1%).
What happened? March’s A-tier was more chaotic than usual (35.1% upset rate vs ~34% all-time), and A-tier makes up 44.4% of all matches. When the biggest tier gets noisier, the model’s Medium and Low confidence buckets — which are most exposed to matchup uncertainty — take the hit. The crowd may have had an edge from recent Twitch viewership that doesn’t show up in historical statistics.
We’ll be watching whether this is a blip or a trend in the second half report.
$140 million wagered on a single X-tier match. 2nd Death Star vs Boss I-no drew the largest pot we’ve ever recorded — bigger than any S-tier match, bigger than the infamous $103.3M P-tier pot from February. When the crowd goes in on an X-tier fight, they go all in. That one match accounted for 0.4% of all Salty Bucks wagered in the entire first half of March.
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