The second half of March is in the books. 6,577 matches, $37.3 billion in Salty Bucks, and one of the most chaotic stretches we’ve recorded. Let’s check it out!


March 16–31 by the Numbers

StatMarch 16–31, 2026
Total matches6,577
Unique fighters seen6,036
Total Salty Bucks wagered$37.3 billion
Average pot$5.7 million
Red wins3,241 (49.3%)
Blue wins3,336 (50.7%)

Combined with the first half (5,086 matches), March 2026 totaled 11,663 matches — a healthy month, right in line with the ~12,500/month average.

Red vs Blue continues its eternal non-rivalry: 49.3% vs 50.7%. Blue edges as always. At this point we’ve said it enough — neither side has a meaningful advantage, and we’ll probably keep saying it because people keep asking.


Tier Breakdown

TierMatchesAvg Pot
A2,823 (42.9%)$5.2M
S2,098 (31.9%)$6.5M
B1,346 (20.5%)$5.0M
X170 (2.6%)$6.6M
P140 (2.1%)$8.6M

The usual distribution. A-tier continues to be the workhorse at 43% of all matches. P-tier is interesting — only 140 matches but the highest average pot at $8.6M. The crowd bets big on P-tier fights, probably because the outcomes feel more uncertain (and they are — P-tier has the lowest crowd accuracy historically).


Undefeated Fighters

These fighters went the entire second half of March without a single loss:

FighterRecordTier
Chie satonaka9-0A
Rockman_exe8-0S
Demon king dhaos7-0S
Evil zangief hd7-0S
Goodman6-0A
Houou jmf6-0S
Justice gg1 ex6-0S
Kaban6-0B

Chie Satonaka leads the pack at 9-0 in A-tier — the Persona 4 rep is on an absolute tear. Rockman_exe (Mega Man Battle Network) follows at 8-0 in S-tier, which is impressive given the level of competition. Playing against Zangief would be brutal — those grabs and throws would drive me insane.

Worth noting: four of the top eight are S-tier. Going undefeated in S-tier — even for a short stretch — means you’re beating the best fighters in SaltyBet. These aren’t soft schedules.


The Struggle Bus

Not everyone had a good March:

FighterRecordTier
Adol christin0-9S
Akebono taro0-7B
Nono0-6S
Reimu-q0-6S
Ermac0-5A
Goku ssjgss0-5S

Ermac! No! My sweet Ermac! Adol Christin — the hero of Ys, a legendary RPG franchise — lost 9 straight in S-tier. Goku SSJGSS (Super Saiyan God Super Saiyan, lol) also went 0-5. As we noted in our piece on why some MUGEN characters always win, the name on the select screen doesn’t always match the performance in the arena.


Biggest Upsets

WinnerDefeatedOdds AgainstTier
C-xionSaber_alter24.3:1S
Supreme gokuKabbu-ki!22.1:1X
Jagi bikeNayuki the runner18.9:1A
Hirasaka hinaAxel-hell16.5:1S
Leon cQ-bee ex14.0:1A

C-xion pulled off the biggest upset of the half — beating Saber_alter at 24:1 odds in S-tier! Twenty four to one! When the crowd bets 24 times more money on your opponent and you still win, that’s the kind of moment that makes SaltyBet worth watching.

Supreme Goku’s 22:1 upset in X-tier is notable because X-tier upsets are genuinely rare. The crowd has the most information about X-tier fighters, so when they’re that wrong, something unusual happened.


Prediction Accuracy

How did SaltyTrack’s ML model perform in the second half of March?

ConfidenceCorrectTotalAccuracy
Lock88100.0%
High1,2971,52685.0%
Medium1,9022,82267.4%
Low1,3102,22159.0%
Overall4,5176,57768.7%

Lock predictions continue to be perfect — 8 for 8, cash me out. High confidence holds strong at 85.0%. Overall accuracy came in at 68.7%, which is below our typical ~72% — working on it boss!

Here’s the interesting part: the crowd came in at 68.5% for the same period — essentially identical to the model’s 68.7%. Normally we edge the crowd by 3-4 points. When both the model and the crowd converge like this, it means the fights themselves were harder to predict. The second half of March had a higher-than-average share of genuinely unpredictable matchups, which the Chaos Score data confirms — won’t stop me from continuing to optimize the model, though, gotta give you all the competitive edge, feel me?!


Chaos Score Highlights

Speaking of chaos — the second half of March had some wild days:

DayChaos ScoreUpsetsHigh-Conf Wrong
March 16433140/426 (32.9%)33
March 19393143/418 (34.2%)29
March 17351123/386 (31.9%)25
Calmest: March 23168

March 16 scored 433 — that’s the 6th highest Chaos Score in our entire all-time dataset! 33 high-confidence predictions failed in a single day. The stretch from March 16–19 was one of the most chaotic 4-day runs we’ve ever recorded, with three consecutive days above 350. Madness!

March 23 was the calm after the storm at 168 — a quiet Sunday.


Full-Month Summary: March 2026

Combining both halves:

StatFull Month
Total matches11,663
Total wagered~$70 billion
Crowd accuracy~68%
SaltyTrack accuracy~70%
Most chaotic dayMarch 16 (score: 433)
Undefeated highlightChie Satonaka (9-0, A-tier)
Biggest upsetC-xion over Saber_alter (24:1, S-tier)

What’s Next

April’s meta report drops in two weeks. In the meantime:


Related Reading


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