Scorpion vs Sub-Zero. The iconic rivalry, the one that started in 1992 and hasn’t stopped since. Every Mortal Kombat fan has an opinion on who would win. So we pulled up our database of over half a million SaltyBet matches to settle it once and for all.
There was just one problem.
Out of 578,000 matches tracked by SaltyTrack since late 2021, Scorpion and Sub-Zero variants have met in the ring exactly 4 times. Four! That’s it. One of if not maybe the most iconic rivalry in fighting game history, and SaltyBet has given us four data points to work with.
Why so few? SaltyBet’s matchmaking cycles through over 10,000 unique fighters. Scorpion has 11 MUGEN variants in the roster. Sub-Zero has 8 (a small signal that the community gravitates to Scorpion over Sub-Zero). They’re spread across different tiers — A, B, and P — and the matchmaker only pairs fighters within the same tier. For any specific Scorpion to meet any specific Sub-Zero, both need to be in the same tier, and both need to get randomly drawn from a pool of thousands. The odds of any given pairing are tiny.
SaltyTrack data shows that across 578,000+ matches, Scorpion and Sub-Zero variants have only crossed paths 4 times — making their SaltyBet rivalry one of the rarest in the database.
Here’s what those 4 meetings looked like:
| Date | Matchup | Winner | Tier | Crowd Favorite |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2023 | Sub-zero EX vs Scorpion EX3 | Scorpion EX3 | A | Sub-Zero (63%) |
| Feb 2024 | Sub-zero EX3 vs Scorpion EX2 | Scorpion EX2 | A | Sub-Zero (60%) |
| Feb 2025 | Scorpion mythos vs Sub-zero CVW | Sub-zero CVW | B | Sub-Zero (68%) |
| Nov 2025 | Scorpion EX3 vs Sub-zero EX | Scorpion EX3 | A | Sub-Zero (55%) |
Two things jump out. First, Scorpion leads the head-to-head 3-1, so Team Scorpion will be pleased.
Second, the crowd bet on Sub-Zero in every single match — and got burned three out of four times. The crowd saw the name “Sub-Zero” and threw money at it. Scorpion punished them for it.
But 4 matches isn’t enough to crown a winner. So we did what SaltyTrack does best: we compared their entire careers instead.
SaltyBet doesn’t just have one Scorpion and one Sub-Zero. Because the roster is built from MUGEN — an open-source fighting game engine — there are multiple community-created versions of each character. Some are faithful recreations of specific Mortal Kombat games. Others are custom builds with original move sets.
Scorpion has 11 variants in the SaltyBet database. Sub-Zero has 8. Together, they’ve fought a combined 1,445 matches across all opponents — 818 for Team Scorpion, 627 for Team Sub-Zero.
Here’s where it gets interesting. We pulled the full stats for every variant of both fighters and stacked them side by side.
| Variant | Matches | Record | Win Rate | Tier | Underdog Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scorpion CVW | 9 | 8-1 | 88.9% | P | — |
| Venom scorpion | 6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | P | 66.7% |
| Scorpion EX4 | 90 | 35-55 | 38.9% | B | 29.6% |
| Scorpion umk3 | 80 | 31-49 | 38.8% | B | 27.7% |
| Sik scorpion | 158 | 58-100 | 36.7% | A | 29.8% |
| Scorpion EX2 | 147 | 52-95 | 35.4% | A | 23.5% |
| Scorpion MK | 6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | P | 20.0% |
| Scorpion EX3 | 189 | 62-127 | 32.8% | A | 28.5% |
| Scorpion mythos | 113 | 32-81 | 28.3% | B | 21.6% |
| Scorpion (base) | 10 | 2-8 | 20.0% | P | 0.0% |
| Scorpion SIK | 12 | 2-10 | 16.7% | P | 18.2% |
| Combined | 818 | 288-530 | 35.2% | A/B | — |
| Variant | Matches | Record | Win Rate | Tier | Underdog Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-zero CVW | 104 | 44-60 | 42.3% | B | 29.3% |
| Sub-zero EX3 | 129 | 41-88 | 31.8% | A | 26.5% |
| Sub-zero mk2 | 97 | 24-73 | 24.7% | B | 15.4% |
| Sub-zero EX | 160 | 39-121 | 24.4% | A | 20.5% |
| Sub-zero | 39 | 9-30 | 23.1% | B | 17.1% |
| Sub-zero umk3 | 74 | 8-66 | 10.8% | B | 8.6% |
| Subzero Ninja | 11 | 1-10 | 9.1% | P | 9.1% |
| Sub zero | 13 | 0-13 | 0.0% | P | 0.0% |
| Combined | 627 | 166-461 | 26.5% | B/A | — |
Scorpion wins this one, and it’s not close. Based on 1,445 combined matches tracked by SaltyTrack, here’s how the two stack up:
| Metric | Scorpion | Sub-Zero | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Variants | 11 | 8 | Scorpion |
| Total Matches | 818 | 627 | Scorpion |
| Combined Win Rate | 35.2% | 26.5% | Scorpion (+8.7%) |
| A-Tier Matches | 470 | 289 | Scorpion |
| Best Variant (50+ matches) | Scorpion EX4 (38.9%) | Sub-zero CVW (42.3%) | Sub-Zero |
| Worst Variant | Scorpion SIK (16.7%) | Sub zero (0.0%) | Scorpion |
| H2H Record | 3 | 1 | Scorpion |
Scorpion leads in nearly every category. An 8.7 percentage point win rate gap is massive in SaltyBet terms — that’s the difference between a fighter who competes and one who mostly loses. Scorpion variants are more likely to land in A-tier, where the competition is stiffer and the wins mean more. Sub-Zero’s roster leans B-tier, where a 26.5% win rate still puts them in the bottom half.
The one category Sub-Zero takes is best individual variant. Sub-zero CVW, with 104 matches and a 42.3% win rate, is the strongest version of either character at meaningful sample sizes. If SaltyBet only had one Scorpion and one Sub-Zero, and it was EX4 vs CVW, Sub-Zero might have the edge. But across the full roster? Scorpion’s depth wins out.
Here’s the twist that makes this rivalry even more interesting: the crowd consistently overvalues Sub-Zero.
In all 4 of their direct meetings, the crowd bet on Sub-Zero. The betting splits ranged from 55-45 to 68-32 in Sub-Zero’s favor. And Scorpion won three of those four matches. The crowd saw the name, assumed Sub-Zero was the stronger pick, and got punished for it.
This pattern holds beyond the head-to-head. Across all matches, Scorpion’s underdog win rates are consistently higher than Sub-Zero’s. Sik scorpion wins 29.8% of matches as the underdog. Scorpion EX4 hits 29.6%. Meanwhile Sub-Zero’s best underdog performer is Sub-zero CVW at 29.3%, and the rest drop off sharply — Sub-zero umk3 manages just 8.6% as the underdog.
When the crowd doesn’t believe in Scorpion, they’re wrong about 25–30% of the time. When they don’t believe in Sub-Zero, they’re wrong 10–20% of the time. Scorpion is the better underdog. Sub-Zero is the worse favorite. And the crowd hasn’t figured it out.
If you’re watching SaltyBet and a Scorpion variant shows up, here’s what the data says:
This is the first article in SaltyTrack’s Franchise Performance Series — a data-driven look at how famous fighting game characters actually perform in SaltyBet’s AI-driven arena. We started with the most iconic rivalry in fighting games, and the data told us something the Mortal Kombat lore never settled: in SaltyBet, Scorpion is the better fighter.
Later on, we’ll be looking at how the entire Mortal Kombat roster stacks up — all the Scorpions, Sub-Zeros, Liu Kangs, and Kitanas in the database. How does the MK franchise compare to Street Fighter and King of Fighters in the SaltyBet tier system? The data is waiting.
Want to check any matchup yourself? SaltyTrack’s Matchup Tool lets you look up head-to-head records and AI predictions for any two fighters in the database. And the SaltyTrack Chrome Extension shows you predictions, win rates, and confidence levels in real time — right on the SaltyBet betting screen.
SaltyBet uses virtual currency only. No real money is wagered or exchanged. SaltyTrack is not affiliated with SaltyBet.